Dynamic Modeling of Kosovo\u27s Electricity Supply–Demand, Gaseous Emissions and Air Pollution

摘要

In this paper is described the developing of an integrated electricity supply–demand, gaseous emission and air pollution model for study of possible baseline electricity developments and available options to mitigate emissions. This model is constructed in STELLA software, which makes use of Systems Dynamics Modeling as the methodology. Several baseline scenarios have been developed from this model and a set of options of possible developments of Kosovo\u27s Electricity Supply–Demand and Gaseous Emissions are investigated. The analysis of various scenarios results in Medium Growth Scenarios (MGS) that imply building of generation capacities and increase in participation of the electricity generation from renewable sources. MGS would be 10% of the total electricity generation and ensure sustainable development of the electricity sector. At the same time, by implementation of new technologies, this would be accompanied by reduced Greenhouse Gases (GHG) (CO2 and NOx) emissions by 60% and significant reduction for air pollutants (dust and SO2) by 40% compared to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. Conclusively, obtained results show that building of new generation capacities by introducing new technologies and orientation on environmentally friendly energy sources can ensure sustainable development of the electricity sector in Kosovo.